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  • The Lone Biosphere: Why Claims About Abundant Alien Life Lack Scientific Foundation

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    Every few months, it seems, we’re treated to breathless headlines announcing the discovery of X number of “potentially habitable” exoplanets, followed by declarations that the universe must be “teeming with life.” These statements aren’t just premature – they represent a fundamental statistical error that continues to permeate both popular science and, surprisingly, some academic discourse.…

  • An Empirical Question of Capabilities

    Simplifying grossly, there are two vocal camps when it comes to AI Safety. Those who don’t worry about AI existential risk tend to look at current capabilities and draw the conclusion that worrying about x-risk is dumb. They tend to ask “how can AI be a risk when it can’t even count the number of…

  • Look for the shiny thing

    In improv there’s a concept of looking for the shiny thing in a scene. The goal is often to establish a grounded reality with relationships between the characters and then, in the flow of the scene, see if you can identify something that catches your attention. This could be about how your scene partner sees…

  • Clarifying Travelling Rules in Basketball

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    I love basketball. I spend an obscene amount of time following the NBA for someone living in the worst possible NBA time zone, and I will almost certainly return to playing despite the fact that a basketball injury has significantly lowered my quality of life for the last year. I just love it that much.…

  • Sponge Goods

    In this post I want to address an idea that has been bouncing around my head, that is almost certainly already addressed in the economic literature, and that I would rather think through myself than actually study. The basic idea is that average incomes have largely risen – with notable dips along the way –…

  • The Fog of War in Non-Profits

    There’s a particular kind of vertigo that comes with running a non-profit. Every morning, I wake up knowing exactly what we’re trying to achieve – helping advanced AI go well for humanity by training the next generation of policymakers – but having only rough hints as to whether or not we’re succeeding. This isn’t a…

  • Working with the door open

    Every business has a unique potential waiting to be tapped. Recognizing the keys to unlock this growth can set an enterprise on the path to unprecedented success.